Fair Lines Ελληνικά

Fixtures / Portugal / 2026-09-14 20:45

Sp Braga Estoril

Goals anchored to market odds

Total goals expected 2.89
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners expected 9.21 model adds signal (+0.5%)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) expected 4.91 no edge over baseline
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

65.3% 1.53 63.3%
20.5% 4.89 22.5%
14.2% 7.04 14.2%
85.8% 1.17
34.7% 2.88
79.5% 1.26

Half-time result

56.0% 1.79
32.2% 3.1
11.8% 8.47

Half-time double chance

88.2% 1.13
44.0% 2.27
67.8% 1.48

Both halves

24.8% 4.03

HT/FT

49.6% 2.01
5.1% 19.69
14.1% 7.12
12.4% 8.09
5.8% 17.21
3.0% 33.0
7.2% 13.97

HT/FT double chance

81.2% 1.23
70.8% 1.41
24.5% 4.08
59.4% 1.68
59.7% 1.68
16.5% 6.06
31.1% 3.22
28.6% 3.49
28.4% 3.53

Total goals

94.4% 1.06
78.6% 1.27
54.7% 1.83 55.3%
32.5% 3.08
21.4% 4.67
45.3% 2.21 44.7%
67.5% 1.48

1st-half goals

78.2% 1.28
44.9% 2.23

Home team goals

87.1% 1.15
60.9% 1.64

Away team goals

56.5% 1.77
20.3% 4.92

Both to score

49.3% 2.03

Corners

64.7% 1.55
53.2% 1.88
42.8% 2.34
33.0% 3.03
24.6% 4.07
46.8% 2.14
57.2% 1.75
67.0% 1.49
75.4% 1.33

Home corners

79.0% 1.27
66.3% 1.51
52.9% 1.89

Away corners

37.0% 2.7
22.1% 4.52
11.9% 8.42

Cards Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

80.7% 1.24
66.5% 1.5
51.4% 1.95
37.0% 2.7
33.5% 2.99
48.6% 2.06
63.0% 1.59

model · fair · market (no margin)