Fair Lines Ελληνικά

Fixtures / EPL / 2026-09-14 20:00

Leeds – Newcastle

Goals anchored to market odds

Total goals expected 2.76
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners expected 10.12 no edge over baseline
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) expected 3.95 model adds signal (+0.7%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

41.2% 2.43 39.9%
25.4% 3.94 27.1%
33.4% 2.99 33.0%
66.6% 1.5
58.8% 1.7
74.6% 1.34

Half-time result

35.8% 2.79
43.6% 2.29
20.5% 4.88

Half-time double chance

79.5% 1.26
64.2% 1.56
56.4% 1.77

Both halves

10.9% 9.17

HT/FT

25.9% 3.85
6.5% 15.43
3.4% 29.33
13.5% 7.42
15.2% 6.56
14.9% 6.7
3.6% 27.4
15.1% 6.62

HT/FT double chance

61.2% 1.64
57.8% 1.73
40.1% 2.5
37.8% 2.64
46.2% 2.16
28.7% 3.49
34.1% 2.93
45.3% 2.21
48.9% 2.04

Total goals

93.6% 1.07
76.1% 1.31
52.2% 1.92 52.6%
30.1% 3.33
23.9% 4.19
47.8% 2.09 47.4%
69.9% 1.43

1st-half goals

66.8% 1.5
29.9% 3.35

Home team goals

77.0% 1.3
43.3% 2.31

Away team goals

72.6% 1.38
37.5% 2.67

Both to score

56.1% 1.78

Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

74.0% 1.35
64.0% 1.56
53.1% 1.88
43.0% 2.33
33.4% 2.99
36.0% 2.78
46.9% 2.13
57.0% 1.75
66.6% 1.5

Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

68.3% 1.46
52.2% 1.91
37.2% 2.69

Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

70.1% 1.43
55.2% 1.81
40.9% 2.45

Cards

70.8% 1.41
52.6% 1.9
35.8% 2.8
22.5% 4.45
47.4% 2.11
64.2% 1.56
77.5% 1.29

model · fair · market (no margin)